A Lucky and Sunny Day at the Graton Casino, Yesterday

My suggestion to THD Activity last year for a Casino trip was granted yesterday. Four THD residents ( Jay P, Mary Ann D, Bill O and Me)  along with our excellent Driver, Sean left THD around 10AM. After an hour and 15 minutes sunny drive we arrived at Graton Casino in Rohnert Park. We have lunch. Jay played regular poker after a one-hour wait. Mary Ann and I played the slots. Both of us were lucky since we brought back some money back here at THD.

I put $50 in the slots and after one hour of playing I ended up at $147. 90. For a while it was in the $285 range, but I did not quit. I expected to lose, but yesterday was my lucky day.    

Before I played the slots, I went to the Poker Tables. I was planning to play a little Pai Gow Poker, but the tables were full.  

 https://chateaudumer.blogspot.com/2024/09/how-to-play-pai-gow-poker-thd-poker.html     

For the first time, I saw card game called Red Dragon patronized mostly by Asian Americans. The Red Dragon tables were filled and overflowing with spectators including myself.

I asked ChatPT: What is Red Dragon Poker and how is it Different from Pai Gao-Chinese Poker. 

Here's the AI response:  What you saw at Graton is Red Dragon Poker, a relatively new Asian-influenced casino card game that has become popular in California casinos, especially among Asian-American players. It’s designed to feel familiar to Pai Gow players, but faster, simpler, and with fewer pushes.

Below is a clear, practical explanation.

What Is Red Dragon Poker?

Red Dragon Poker is a dealer-banked card game played with a standard 52-card deck.

• You are not playing against other players

• You play one hand directly against the dealer

• The goal is simply: beat the dealer’s hand

It borrows the comfort and cultural feel of Pai Gow Poker but removes much of the complexity.

How Red Dragon Is Played (Basic Idea)

• You receive 5 cards

• The dealer receives 5 cards

• Best 5-card poker hand wins

• No splitting hands, no strategy charts, no setting errors

Some versions include optional bonus bets (often called Dragon or Fortune bonuses) that pay for strong hands regardless of whether you beat the dealer.

How Red Dragon Differs from Pai Gow Poker

1. One Hand vs. Two Hands

Pai Gow Poker

• You get 7 cards

• You must split them into:

  • a 5-card “high” hand

  • a 2-card “low” hand

• Both must beat the dealer to win

Red Dragon

• You play one 5-card hand

• Much simpler, no splitting decisions

2. Much Faster Pace

Pai Gow Poker

• Very slow

• Many hands end in pushes (ties)

• Popular with social, low-stress players

Red Dragon

• Faster hands

• Fewer pushes

• More decisive wins and losses

This faster rhythm appeals to players who enjoy action without moving to blackjack or baccarat.

3. Fewer Pushes

Pai Gow Poker

• Pushes are extremely common

• Many players like this because bankrolls last longer

Red Dragon

• Pushes are rarer

• The game feels more “alive” and results-oriented

4. No “House Way” Confusion

Pai Gow Poker

• Dealer follows a complex “House Way” for setting hands

• Players often rely on the dealer to set their hand

Red Dragon

• No house way charts

• Best hand wins—easy to understand and explain

5. Cultural Familiarity

Red Dragon appeals strongly to Asian-American players because it:

• Feels closer to traditional poker logic

• Avoids commissions (unlike baccarat)

• Keeps the calm, communal table atmosphere common in Pai Gow

Why Casinos Like Red Dragon

• Faster than Pai Gow → more hands per hour

• Simple rules → easier for new players

• Familiar to Pai Gow fans but more profitable for the house

That’s why you’re seeing it appear in casinos like Graton, especially in areas with large Asian-American communities.

In One Sentence

Pai Gow Poker is slow, strategic, and push-heavy. Red Dragon Poker is faster, simpler, and more decisive, designed as a modern evolution of Pai Gow.

Meanwhile, a fellow Residents asked me if I want to learn how to play Backgammon. I said yes and here's a short summary of the game. Backgammon is the National game of Egypt and Turkey and very popular in the Middle East countries like Iran and Iraq. 

  . 

1. Board Setup

The board consists of 24 triangles called points. Each player has 15 checkers of a distinct color (traditionally black and white). 

• The Setup (5-3-5-2 rule): For each player, checkers are placed on specific points:
  • 5 checkers on the 6-point.
  • 3 checkers on the 8-point.
  • 5 checkers on the 13-point.
  • 2 checkers on the 24-point (the furthest point from your home).
• Direction of Play: Players move in opposite directions in a horseshoe-like fashion, aiming toward their respective home boards (the 1-6 points). 

2. Gameplay Mechanics

• Starting: Each player rolls one die. The player with the higher number goes first, using both their roll and the opponent's roll for their first move.
• Moving: On subsequent turns, roll two dice. The numbers represent two separate moves. You can move one checker twice or two checkers once.
• Doubles: If you roll the same number on both dice (e.g., 4-4), you move that number four times instead of twice.
• Open Points: A checker can only land on an "open point"—one not occupied by two or more of your opponent's checkers. 

3. Hitting and Entering

• Blots: A single checker on a point is called a "blot." It is vulnerable to being "hit".
• Hitting: If your checker lands on an opponent's blot, that checker is moved to the bar (the middle divider).
• Entering: If you have a checker on the bar, you must re-enter it into your opponent's home board before moving any other checkers. You re-enter based on a die roll that corresponds to an open point in their home board. 

4. Bearing Off (Winning the Game)

Once all 15 of your checkers are inside your home board (points 1–6), you can start removing them. 

• Roll a die that corresponds to the point a checker is on to remove it.
• If you roll a number higher than your furthest occupied point, you can remove a checker from that furthest point.
• The first player to remove all 15 checkers wins. 

5. Types of Wins & Scoring

• Single Game: Winner bears off all checkers while the opponent has removed at least one.
• Gammon (2 points): Winner bears off all checkers before the opponent has removed any.
• Backgammon (3 points): Winner bears off all checkers while the opponent has removed none and still has a checker in the winner's home board or on the bar. 

Beginner Tips

• Build Points: Try to keep at least two checkers on a point to "secure" it and avoid being hit.
• Don't Leave Blots: Avoid leaving single checkers exposed, especially in your opponent's reach.
• Move Back Checkers Early: Try to advance your two furthest checkers (on the 24-point) early so they don't get trapped. 
• https://www.artofplay.com/blogs/stories/how-to-play-backgammon?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=23327499293&gbraid=0AAAAADnWyOhXDOR1X--MspeRH2VbFZeq3&gclid=Cj0KCQiApfjKBhC0ARIsAMiR_IvK4uC3emiMtJZO8EnocgM0J7u8Ey9WwajjQIPfY_c17le6o2mkHCcaAtVCEALw_wcB

Vignettes from Filipino-American History

TWO PINOYS CHEERED BY THE U.S. CONGRESS

In 1986, President Cory Aquino gave a speech before a joint session of the United States Congress that drew more than 10 standing ovations, made House Speaker Tip O’Neill exclaim, “It was the finest speech I’ve heard in my 34 years in Congress!” and prompted the lawmakers to rush a vote to give the Philippines an additional $200 million in economic aid which was "the honorarium for an excellent speech" decided "by our hearts, not our heads."

In 1902, another Filipino's words similarly touched the hearts of the members of the US Congress—and he wasn't even there.

Henry A. Cooper, a Republican from Wisconsin and Chairman of the House Committee on Insular Affairs, took the floor of the US Congress to defend a bill that would create a Philippine legislature designed to put the colony on the road to independence.

That was the time when the American public knew nothing about their new colony and only imagined Filipinos to be black-skinned savages who lived in trees like monkeys.

Cooper had barely opened his mouth when congressmen started shouting him down. Determined to keep the Philippines a US colony, Republicans and Democrats stood one after another to interrupt Cooper.

“Mr. Chairman,” Cooper cried, “Think of their history! For three hundred hopeless years the Spaniards robbed these helpless people! For three hundred years they lived under a government which deliberately kept the masses in ignorance!”

“Yet, Mr. Chairman,” Cooper continued, “despite this deprivation, this race has given to the world not a few examples of intellectual and moral worth — men in the height of mind and power of character.”

“It’s been said that if American institutions had done nothing else than to furnish to the world the character of George Washington,” Cooper said, “that alone would entitle Americans to the respect of mankind. So, Mr. Chairman, I say to all those who denounce the Filipinos indiscriminately as barbarians and savages: this race has proven itself entitled to their respect and to the respect of mankind when it furnished to the world the character of Jose Rizal!”

Cooper briefly narrated the story of Rizal’s life and death and then read, with eloquence and feeling, an English translation of Rizal’s poem 'Mi Ultimo Adios.'

After the last lines “Farewell to thee, too, sweet friend that lightened my way/Beloved creatures all, farewell! In death there is rest!” the entire US Congress sat in stunned silence, then broke into prolonged applause.

Cooper concluded, “Search the long and bloody roll of the world’s martyred dead. Where, on what soil, under what sky, did Tyranny ever claim a nobler victim?”

With that speech, the US Congress passed the bill into law which is now known as the Philippine Organic Act of 1902. It created the Philippine legislature, appointed two Filipino delegates to the US Congress, extended the US Bill of Rights to Filipinos, and laid the foundation for an autonomous government. The colony was on its way to independence.

The Americans also finally accepted their kinship with Filipinos after realizing that the bolo-wielding islander was not a savage but like them, a passionate defender of freedom and democracy.

(Reference: “Rizal in the American Congress” in Philippine Free Press, December 27, 1952 by Vicente Albano Pacis)

Did you know that the Philippine-American War (1899–1902) was one of the deadliest conflicts in Asian history, yet it is often downplayed in global textbooks?

While military deaths were significant, the civilian toll was catastrophic, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to over 1,000,000 lives lost.

The majority of these deaths resulted from famine, forced displacement in "reconcentration" camps, and a devastating cholera epidemic triggered by the chaos of war.

This demographic tragedy claimed a massive percentage of the total population, marking a somber chapter in the Filipino struggle for sovereignty.

Meanwhile, 

In 2019, scientists confirmed the existence of the Apolaki Caldera, now recognized as the largest known volcanic caldera on Earth, hidden deep beneath the Philippine Sea within the Benham Rise or Philippine Rise. The discovery was led by Filipino marine geophysicist Jenny Anne Barretto, together with an international research team that included Dr. Ray Wood and Dr. John Milsom. Using detailed geophysical and bathymetric data, the team identified the massive underwater structure, measuring approximately 150 kilometers in diameter, making it far larger than the Yellowstone Caldera in the United States. Their findings were later published in a peer reviewed scientific journal, marking a major milestone in marine geology and volcanology.

The caldera was named Apolaki, after the Filipino sun and war deity whose name translates to great lord or giant lord, symbolizing both its immense size and national significance. The discovery highlights the geological importance of the Benham Rise and reinforces the Philippines’ role in advancing Earth science research. Beyond national pride, Apolaki Caldera provides scientists with valuable insight into ancient volcanic activity, plate tectonics, and the formation of large igneous structures beneath the ocean floor. Its identification also underscores how much of Earth’s geology remains unexplored, particularly beneath the seas, where discoveries can reshape our understanding of the planet’s dynamic history.

Lastly,

Sitangkai: The Philippines’ Southernmost Municipality

Located in Tawi-Tawi, Sitangkai is the southernmost municipality of the Philippines and is often called the “Venice of the South.” Built entirely on stilts over saltwater, daily life here depends on bancas and pump boats instead of roads.

Just 1–2 hours by boat from Sabah, Malaysia, Sitangkai has strong cross-border ties, with about 80% of its goods sourced from Sabah. Surrounded by rich waters, it is also known as the Seaweed Capital of the Bangsamoro Region, with fishing and seaweed farming as key livelihoods.

The Global Economy in 2026: Uncertainty, Opportunity, and the AI Question

This posting is inspired from the latest Fareed Zakaria GPS TV Show. 

The Global Economy in 2026: Uncertainty, Opportunity, and the AI Question

On a recent Sunday episode of Fareed Zakaria GPS, Fareed sat down with Ruchir Sharma of Breakout Capital to look ahead at the global economy in 2026. Their conversation captured the uneasy mood of our time: cautious optimism tempered by deep uncertainty.

Two powerful forces framed the discussion rising tariffs and the rapid advance of artificial intelligence. Together, they are reshaping markets, national strategies, and investor psychology.

Tariffs and the Return of Economic Nationalism

One of Sharma’s central points was that tariffs are no longer a temporary negotiating tactic; they are becoming a permanent feature of the global economy. From the U.S. to China to Europe, governments are prioritizing domestic resilience over global efficiency.

This shift marks a clear departure from the free-trade consensus that defined much of the late 20th and early 21st centuries. While tariffs may protect certain industries and jobs in the short term, they also inject uncertainty into supply chains, raise costs for consumers, and slow global growth.

For 2026, Sharma expects a world economy that is more fragmented, not collapsing, but less synchronized. Growth will likely continue, though unevenly, with emerging markets that manage debt well and avoid political instability outperforming those that do not.

AI: Productivity Boom or Investment Bubble?

Artificial intelligence dominated the more hopeful and more anxious part of the discussion. On one hand, Sharma acknowledged AI’s enormous potential to boost productivity, especially in fields like logistics, medicine, finance, and manufacturing. Over time, these gains could help offset aging populations and slowing labor growth in many countries.

But he also sounded a familiar warning: investors may be running ahead of reality.

The rush of capital into AI-related companies echoes past moments of technological exuberance, the dot-com era comes to mind. While AI will undoubtedly transform the economy, not every company labeled “AI-powered” will survive, and valuations may be getting ahead of proven profits.

In 2026, Sharma expects a sorting process: real innovators will separate from hype-driven ventures. Volatility, he suggests, is not a sign of failure but a natural part of technological revolutions.

A World Adjusting, Not Collapsing

Perhaps the most important takeaway from the conversation was its balance. This was not a forecast of doom, nor a promise of effortless growth. Instead, Sharma described a world economy learning to live with higher interest rates, geopolitical tension, and faster technological change.

The era of easy money is over. Discipline, adaptability, and long-term thinking will matter more than ever for governments, businesses, and investors alike.

A Personal Reflection

Watching this discussion, I was reminded that economic change is rarely neat or predictable. Having lived through multiple cycles postwar rebuilding, globalization, deregulation, and now re-fragmentation, I’ve learned that resilience often matters more than forecasts.

For younger generations, AI may feel like an overwhelming force. For older ones, tariffs and trade wars may feel like history repeating itself. Both perspectives are valid. What matters is remembering that economies are human creations, shaped by choices, values, and priorities,  not just numbers on a screen.

As we move into 2026, uncertainty may be the defining feature of the global economy. But uncertainty also creates space for wisdom, restraint, and renewal.

May we face the coming year with clear eyes, steady hands, and the patience that comes from experience.

Meanwhile, here's the AI Overview on this topic 

While global growth is projected to slow slightly to approximately 3.1% (down from 3.2% in 2025), a massive AI-driven capital expenditure cycle is acting as a critical buffer, particularly for the U.S. and emerging Asian markets. 

Economic Outlook and Regional Trends

Major financial institutions project a resilient but cooling global environment as the effects of 2025's tariff shocks and policy shifts continue to manifest. 

• Global Growth: The IMF and OECD forecast a modest slowdown, with global real GDP growth expected between 2.9% and 3.1%.
• United States: Growth is projected to land between 1.5% and 2.3%. This is supported by an "AI tailwind" that may mask underlying economic softness in traditional sectors.
• China: Growth is expected to ease to roughly 4.4%–4.7% as fiscal stimulus fades and the 15th Five-Year Plan prioritizes "new quality productive forces" like AI and quantum computing over raw expansion.
• Eurozone: Growth remains subdued, projected at 1.0%–1.2%, as the region faces higher trade frictions and limited AI investment compared to the U.S. and China. 

The "AI Question": Boom or Bubble?

2026 is viewed as the "year of AI reckoning," shifting from hype to real-world deployment. 

• The Capex Cycle: AI infrastructure spending has reached unprecedented levels, dwarfing the 1990s telecom boom. Just four tech giants—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—spent over $337 billion in 2025 alone, a trend continuing into 2026.
• Productivity vs. Earnings: Markets are debating whether AI will deliver a "non-inflationary boom" through productivity gains or if companies will fail to generate the earnings implied by current valuations.
• Bubble Concerns: While some warn of an "AI bubble" that could trigger a market correction if ROI remains mixed, most analysts believe valuations remain below 1990s dot-com levels. 

Emerging Opportunities and Risks

• Agentic AI: A major shift toward "agentic" systems—AI that can automate complex workflows rather than just answering questions—is expected to drive efficiency in finance, logistics, and scientific research.
• Quantum Breakthroughs: 2026 is anticipated as a turning point where quantum systems begin to outperform classical computers in narrow domains like drug discovery and financial optimization.
• Key Risks: Persistent inflation above 2% targets, "deeply disruptive" trade and tariff policies, and high global indebtedness remain the primary threats to stability. 
• Meanwhile, My photo of the Day- Clouds over Mt Fuji, Japan
• 

  Finally, here's the top five News of the Day:

   1. Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro captured by US and appears in New York court
  Maduro and his wife were brought before a federal court in New York, pleading not guilty in connection with charges following a U.S. operation in Venezuela. The dramatic international incident continues to spark global reactions. ABC News

  2. Global pushback against U.S. comments on Greenland sovereignty
  European leaders strongly rejected comments by U.S. President Donald Trump about a potential American takeover of Greenland, affirming that only Denmark and Greenland can decide the island’s future. Reuters

  3. U.S. government faces looming funding deadline and possible shutdown
  With current funding set to expire on January 30, lawmakers have roughly four weeks to pass remaining appropriations bills to avoid another federal government shutdown. The Washington Post

  4. Venezuelan oil shunned by China amid export constraints
  Chinese buyers passed on offers for Venezuelan crude this week as U.S. blockade measures tighten export constraints, impacting global energy markets. Bloomberg

  5. Global markets rally to start 2026
  World stock markets, including the UK’s FTSE 100, hit record highs as investors respond to optimism over monetary policy, corporate earnings, and continued AI-driven growth momentum. theguardian.com