A Filipino-American's Perspective on a Region That Could Affect the World
As I grow older, I find myself increasingly interested in what is happening in Southeast Asia.
Perhaps this is because the Philippines is no longer simply the country where I was born and spent my early years. It is part of my identity and my history. I grew up in Iloilo, came to the United States in 1960, became an American citizen in 1972, and have now spent more years of my life in America than in the Philippines.
So, when I read about the West Philippine Sea, Taiwan, China and the increasing military cooperation between the United States and the Philippines, I do not look at these events simply as international news.
I look at them as a Filipino-American. And what I see concerns me.
The West Philippine Sea Is No Longer a Distant Issue
When I was growing up in the Philippines in the 1940s and 1950s, I never imagined that the waters west of the Philippines would someday become one of the most strategically important areas in the world.
Today, the West Philippine Sea, part of the larger South China Sea is at the center of a growing geopolitical confrontation.
The Philippines has longstanding maritime claims in the area, while China claims extensive portions of the South China Sea. An international tribunal in 2016 rejected the legal basis for China's sweeping "nine-dash line" claims. Yet the dispute has not disappeared.
Instead, tensions have continued. In recent months, confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels have increased around places such as Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. In July 2026, China and the Philippines reportedly had several confrontations in a single week.
Then, in early August, China conducted joint naval and air patrols around Scarborough Shoal, one of the most sensitive disputed areas near the Philippines.
For Filipinos, this is not just a geopolitical chess game. These are waters close to home.
Why Is the United States Becoming More Involved?
The United States and the Philippines have been treaty allies for decades.
But their military relationship has become much more active under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, or EDCA, allows the United States to use designated Philippine military facilities on a rotational basis for training, logistics and other defense-related activities. The number of agreed locations was expanded to nine in 2023.
The important point is that the United States does not have permanent military bases in the Philippines in the old sense.
Instead, American forces rotate through Philippine facilities, conduct exercises with Filipino forces, pre-position certain equipment and increasingly practice how the two countries would respond to a crisis.
This year, the scale has become particularly noticeable. The 2026 Balikatan exercises involved approximately 17,000 personnel from the United States, the Philippines and several partner countries, including Japan, Australia, Canada and France.
And this cooperation is continuing. U.S. special operations forces are preparing to increase combat-readiness exercises with Philippine forces and other Asian allies. Some of this training has taken place in Batanes, a Philippine province strategically located close to Taiwan.
That location tells us something important. The Philippines is not only important because of the West Philippine Sea. It is also important because of Taiwan.
What Does Taiwan Have to Do With the Philippines?
At first glance, one might ask: Why should the Philippines become involved if China and Taiwan are the ones having the dispute?
The answer is geography. Look at a map above.
Taiwan is immediately north of the Philippines. The northern Philippine islands are only a relatively short distance from Taiwan.
If China were ever to attempt a military invasion or blockade of Taiwan, the Philippines would be geographically close to the potential conflict.
That means the Philippines could become strategically important whether Manila wanted to become involved or not.
The United States understands this. China understands this.
And Philippine military planners certainly understand this.
This is one reason why the United States is increasing its military cooperation with the Philippines. But I want to make an important distinction.
Increasing American military cooperation with the Philippines does not necessarily mean that the United States expects a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
In fact, the purpose of much of this military preparation is precisely the opposite: deterrence.
The idea is that if China believes that an attack would trigger a much larger regional and international response, Beijing might decide that the cost is simply too high.
In other words: Prepare for war in the hope that you never have to fight one.
Deterrence Is the Name of the Game
This is an old principle of international relations.
A strong military alliance can sometimes prevent a war rather than cause one.
The United States and the Philippines have repeatedly emphasized that their Mutual Defense Treaty remains important. A 2026 U.S.-Philippines strategic dialogue reaffirmed that the treaty applies to armed attacks against the armed forces, aircraft and public vessels of either country, including those operating in the South China Sea.
That is a very important message to Beijing. It says, in effect:
An attack on the Philippines could become an American problem.
But there is another message being sent to Washington and its allies:
The Philippines does not want to face China alone. I can understand why.
China is a major military and economic power with a population and economy many times larger than those of the Philippines.
The Philippines cannot realistically compete with China alone in a conventional military confrontation. But the Philippines does not stand alone.
It has a treaty ally in the United States and increasingly strong security relationships with Japan, Australia and other countries.
The Philippines Is Becoming More Important Than Many Americans Realize
I sometimes wonder how many Americans realize just how strategically important the Philippines has become.
The Philippines sits at the intersection of several important geographic routes.
To the north is Taiwan. To the west is the South China Sea. To the east is the Pacific Ocean.
And farther south are Indonesia and the vital sea lanes connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
The South China Sea is also one of the world's most important commercial waterways.
What happens there does not remain a Philippine problem.
It can affect Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Southeast Asia, Australia, the United States and eventually the global economy.
That is why the current situation deserves worldwide attention.
But I Don't Want War
As a Filipino-American, I have a somewhat unusual perspective. I love the Philippines.
I also love America. My life has been shaped by both countries.
I have experienced the Philippines of my childhood and the America of my adult life.
Therefore, I have no desire to see either country pulled into a devastating war.
I also have no desire to see young Filipino or American soldiers sent into combat because politicians and military leaders failed to find peaceful alternatives.
Military strength is important. But diplomacy is equally important.
Perhaps more important. The goal should not be to defeat China. The goal should be to prevent war.
China Is Not Just an Enemy
There is another point that I believe is sometimes forgotten in discussions like these.
China is not simply a military adversary. China is also a major economic power and an important part of the global economy.
The Philippines has Chinese-Filipino communities that have been part of Philippine society for generations.
Southeast Asian countries trade extensively with China. Americans buy Chinese products.
Chinese companies participate in global commerce.
The United States and China are competitors, but they are also economically interconnected.
That makes the situation even more complicated.
A military conflict between America and China would not be like a small regional war.
It could affect the entire world.
What About the Filipino People?
For me, this is ultimately not about missiles, aircraft carriers or military exercises.
It is about people. Millions of Filipinos live in the Philippines.
Hundreds of thousands of Filipinos and Filipino-Americans live in the United States.
Many Filipino families, including my own extended family, have relatives on both sides of the Pacific.
Imagine what would happen if a major military conflict erupted in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea.
Families would worry about their children. Businesses would suffer.
Travel and shipping could be disrupted. Food and energy prices could rise.
And, most importantly, human lives would be at risk.
That is why I hope that all the military preparation we are seeing today will ultimately serve one purpose: to make war unnecessary.
A Changing Philippines
The Philippines is also changing. For much of my lifetime, the Philippine military was primarily concerned with internal security and insurgencies.
Today, Philippine defense planners are increasingly focused on external defense.
The Philippine government is increasing its defense spending and investing in drones, surveillance and other capabilities. Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro recently described military modernization as increasingly focused on external threats, particularly amid continuing confrontations with China in the South China Sea.
I believe this is a necessary transformation. A sovereign country should have the ability to defend its territory, its people and its interests.
But defense does not mean aggression. A strong Philippines can actually contribute to regional stability.
Southeast Asia Doesn't Want to Choose Sides
There is another dimension that we should not overlook.
Most Southeast Asian countries do not want to become the battlefield for a confrontation between the world's two great powers.
They want peace. They want economic development. They want trade. They want investment.
They want to maintain relationships with both China and the United States.
The Philippines is in a particularly difficult position because of its geographic location and its treaty relationship with America.
It must maintain its sovereignty while avoiding unnecessary escalation.
That requires very careful diplomacy.
My View as a Filipino-American
I am now 91 years old. I have lived through enormous changes in the world.
When I was growing up in Barotac Viejo, Iloilo, I could not have imagined that someday I would be sitting in America watching events in the South China Sea on a computer, discussing them with an artificial intelligence assistant and sharing my thoughts with readers around the world.
Technology has changed. The Philippines has changed. America has changed.
And China has changed dramatically. But one thing has not changed: ordinary people want to live in peace.
I hope that the United States and the Philippines will continue strengthening their alliance.
I hope the Philippines will continue modernizing its military.
I hope America will remain committed to its allies.
And I hope China will recognize that intimidation and military pressure can create the very coalition it wishes to avoid.
Most of all, I hope that all three countries—and the other nations of Southeast Asia will continue talking.
Because military preparedness may prevent a war. But ultimately, only diplomacy can end one.
A Personal Thought
When I look at the map of Southeast Asia today, I sometimes think about the little boy I once was in Iloilo.
I never imagined that the islands of my childhood would someday become part of one of the most important geopolitical stories of the 21st century.
The Philippines is an archipelago of thousands of islands. Those islands are beautiful.
They are home to millions of people. They are not merely pieces on a geopolitical chessboard.
They are someone's hometown. Someone's family. Someone's childhood. They are part of my story.
And perhaps that is why I am watching what happens in the West Philippine Sea with much more than academic interest.
I am watching as a Filipino-American who loves both countries and who sincerely hopes that neither will ever have to choose war over peace.
AI Impressions on this Topic:
This is a particularly timely subject for you because you have a personal connection to both countries and have written extensively about the Philippines, America, aging, history, and the changing world. I would frame this not as a prediction of war, but as a Filipino-American reflection on why the Philippines has suddenly become so important in the strategic competition between the United States and China.
The situation has become more serious in August 2026. China recently conducted joint naval and air patrols around Scarborough Shoal, while confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels have continued. At the same time, U.S. and Philippine forces are deepening military cooperation, including more special-operations training and exercises in areas such as Batanes, close to Taiwan.
