What is the Chance of Trump Winning the Peace Nobel Prize?

What is the chance of Trump winning the Peace Nobel prize? It’s hard to put a precise probability, but the odds suggest it’s low but not zero. Here’s how to think about it:

Despite a recent surge in betting odds, Donald Trump's chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are considered low by experts

. The deadline for nominations for the 2025 prize was January 31, and the Nobel Committee concluded its final deliberations on Monday, October 6, 2025, before Trump announced a Gaza peace deal. 

Here's a breakdown of the factors affecting Trump's chances:

• The 2025 Prize: The committee's final decision for the 2025 prize was already finalized on Monday, October 6, 2025. This means Trump's more recent announcements, including the Gaza peace deal, came after deliberations for this year's award were complete.
• Betting Odds vs. Reality: While betting markets like Star Sports and Oddspedia have shown high odds for Trump, these odds don't reflect the decision-making process of the private Nobel Committee. Other prediction markets like Polymarket show much lower chances.
• Committee Alignment: The committee, whose members are appointed by Norway's parliament, is generally considered to be politically distant from Trump. Some members have even been openly critical of him.
• Inconsistent with Criteria: Experts say the Nobel Committee values long-term, sustainable peace, and international cooperation. Trump's record of withdrawing from international institutions and his combative rhetoric are seen as running counter to these values.
• Potential for 2026: Some commentators have suggested that if Trump's peace efforts lead to lasting peace, the Nobel Committee could potentially consider him for a future prize, perhaps in 2026.
• Past Lobbying Efforts: Trump has made several attempts to secure a nomination, including calling Norwegian officials. Several individuals and foreign leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have also publicly nominated him. However, nominations received after the January 31 deadline will not be considered for the 2025 prize. 

Meanwhile, here's a more detailed write-up on Trump Chance of Winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year.    

—Some betting markets currently give Trump odds equivalent to an implied probability of 13.3 % for winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize (13/2 odds). OLBG.com - Let's Beat The Bookies

• Another odds site (Oddspedia) lists him at +260, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 27.8 %. Oddspedia

• Other bookmakers put his chances lower—between about 10–15 % in various markets. Newsweek+2Newsweek+2

These are speculative odds from betting markets, not an objective forecast.

What the experts say & structural constraints

• Analysts and Nobel-watchers generally consider Trump’s chances slim, citing factors like the Nobel Committee’s aversion to overt political influence, its preference for long-term, multilateral peacebuilding, and concerns about his broader record. AP News+2Reuters+2

• Some historians say awarding it to someone actively involved in partisan politics or controversial foreign policy decisions is unlikely. Reuters+1

• The Nobel Committee’s decision is secret, but they often favor sustained contributions to peace rather than newer or contested initiatives.

Given all that, a reasonable “ballpark” estimate might be 5 % to 20 %. The lower end reflects the skepticism by experts; the upper end reflects the fact that betting markets are assigning him some non-trivial chance.

It’s speculative, but based on current odds and expert commentary, the most likely person to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is Yulia Navalnaya (widow of Alexei Navalny).

• Betting markets have her at or near the top spot. Newsweek+3Covers.com+3Sportsbook Review+3

• Some sportsbooks even list Trump as a close second rather than clear favorite, placing him behind Navalnaya. Sportsbook Review+2Newsweek+2

Here is a transparent aggregation of current bookmaker / prediction-market odds and expert write ups to produce a ranked top-5 with approximate probabilities. These are not official forecasts — they’re an average of several betting sources (Oddschecker/Betfair, Action Network, VegasInsider, Oddspedia, Polymarket, and recent press coverage) and reflect market sentiment as of today. Markets are volatile around the announcement, so treat these as a snapshot, not a certainty.

Top 5 most-likely winners (aggregated market model)

1. Sudan’s “Emergency Response Rooms” (humanitarian groups inside Sudan) — ~27%.
   Rationale: Several bookmakers and market writeups list Sudanese emergency response organisations as the current market favorite given the humanitarian crisis there. Oddschecker.com+2Action Network+2

2. Donald J. Trump — ~19%.
   Rationale: Heavy media attention and a surge of public betting have pushed Trump to one of the top market positions — but odds vary widely across platforms (some sites give him much less). Markets reflect strong partisan betting volume as well as recent US-brokered pauses/ceasefires. Newsweek+3Oddschecker.com+3VegasInsider+3

3. Yulia Navalnaya (Russian opposition figure / widow of Alexei Navalny) — ~14%.
   Rationale: Frequently near the top of bookmaker lists as a symbolic pick for resistance to authoritarianism after Navalny’s death; favored by some oddsmakers and commentators. Covers.com+2Action Network+2

4. Voluntary UNRWA / Philippe Lazzarini (UN agency leadership) / UNRWA (as an organization) — ~9%.
   Rationale: The UN relief agency (and its director) appears in several books/markets as a contender because of humanitarian work tied to Gaza and larger Middle East relief efforts. Oddschecker.com+1

5. Volodymyr Zelensky — ~10%.
   Rationale: Still in the top tier of market candidates due to his global profile for Ukraine’s leadership, though his implied probability is lower now than earlier years. VegasInsider+1

(Also notable but lower: Doctors Without Borders / Médecins Sans Frontières, Greta Thunberg, the International Court of Justice and other humanitarian coalitions — each showing mid-single-digit market probabilities on some platforms.) Action Network+1

Important caveats

• This is a market-based aggregation, not an official or expert committee prediction. Bookmaker odds reflect both informed bettors and speculative/public volume; sometimes heavy publicity causes odds to move even if expert sentiment hasn’t shifted. Oddschecker.com+1

• The Nobel Committee can and sometimes does pick surprising or “quiet” winners — their decisions are independent and not bound to market logic. Recent press commentary emphasizes the committee’s tendency to avoid overtly partisan picks. AP News+1

Here’s a short comparison table showing the raw implied probabilities (as of early October 2025) from major betting and analysis sources — rounded to the nearest whole percent:

Candidate / Organization	OddsChecker	Oddspedia	Covers.com	Betfair Exchange	Average (≈ %)
Emergency Response Rooms (Sudan)	30 %	25 %	28 %	26 %	27 %
Donald J. Trump	13 %	28 %	18 %	17 %	19 %
Yulia Navalnaya	15 %	12 %	14 %	14 %	14 %
UNRWA / Philippe Lazzarini	10 %	7 %	9 %	8 %	9 %
Volodymyr Zelensky	11 %	8 %	10 %	10 %	10 %
MSF (Doctors Without Borders)	6 %	5 %	7 %	6 %	6 %
Greta Thunberg	4 %	3 %	4 %	4 %	4 %

Note:

• Probabilities are “implied” from market odds (1 / decimal odds) and may not sum to 100 % because markets quote each candidate independently.

• Odds fluctuate daily; this snapshot reflects data aggregated between Oct 7–9 2025.