WELCOME TO CHATEAU DU MER BEACH RESORT

If this is your first time in my site, welcome! Chateau Du Mer is a beach house and a Conference Hall. The beach house could now accommodate 10 guests, six in the main floor and four in the first floor( air conditioned room). In addition, you can now reserve your vacation dates ahead and pay the rental fees via PayPal. I hope to see you soon in Marinduque- Home of the Morions and Heart of the Philippines. The photo above was taken during our first Garden Wedding ceremony at The Chateau Du Mer Gardens. I have also posted my favorite Filipino and American dishes and recipes in this site. Some of the photos and videos on this site, I do not own, but I have no intention on the infringement of your copyrights!

Marinduque Mainland from Tres Reyes Islands

Marinduque Mainland from Tres Reyes Islands
View of Marinduque Mainland from Tres Reyes Islands-Click on photo to link to Marinduque Awaits You

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Can an Antioxidant Supplement Protect Our Kidneys? My Thoughts on Astaxanthin and Online Health Claims

Can an Antioxidant Supplement Protect Our Kidneys? My Thoughts on Astaxanthin and Online Health Claims

Another Promising Health Supplement Catches My Attention

As a 91, nearing 92-year-old senior living at The Heritage Downtown, I have learned that growing older brings many blessings, but it also brings health challenges. One of the most important lessons I have learned is to be careful about what I put into my body, especially when it comes to supplements that promise remarkable health benefits.

Recently, I came across an advertisement for ClarityMD Astaxanthin, a dietary supplement containing 12 mg of astaxanthin per softgel. The advertisement caught my attention because it claimed to protect kidney cells, support healthy GFR levels, reduce inflammation, improve digestion, restore mental clarity, and provide lasting energy.

For someone like me who has Stage 4 chronic kidney disease (CKD), such claims naturally attract attention. Who would not want to discover something that might help preserve kidney function?

But my years as a chemist, pharmaceutical scientist, and former FDA Chemistry Team Leader taught me an important lesson: A promising scientific explanation is not the same as proof that a product works in people.

That distinction is especially important when our health is at stake.

What Is Astaxanthin?

Astaxanthin is a reddish natural pigment belonging to a group of compounds called carotenoids. It is produced by certain microalgae and contributes to the color of salmon, shrimp, and other aquatic animals.

Scientists have studied astaxanthin because of its antioxidant properties. Antioxidants can help counter certain forms of oxidative damage in biological systems.

Oxidative stress is a legitimate subject of medical research. It has been investigated in connection with aging, inflammation, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease.

However, we must be careful not to jump from one scientific fact to another.

The fact that oxidative stress is associated with a disease does not automatically mean that taking an antioxidant supplement will prevent or treat that disease.

Nature offers us many fascinating substances. Some eventually become useful medicines. Others show promise in laboratory experiments but fail to demonstrate meaningful benefits in clinical trials.

We need scientific evidence to know the difference.

Can Astaxanthin Improve Kidney Function?

This is the most important question for me.

The advertisement suggests that taking astaxanthin can protect kidney cells and support healthy glomerular filtration rate, commonly known as GFR. This measurement helps doctors assess how well the kidneys filter waste from the blood.

I examined the available scientific evidence, including research reviews on antioxidant supplements in people with chronic kidney disease.

Astaxanthin has been studied in humans, including a small clinical trial involving kidney transplant recipients. However, transplant recipients are not the same population as people living with Stage 4 CKD who have not received a transplant.

The available evidence does not establish that astaxanthin improves GFR, stops the progression of Stage 4 CKD, or prevents the need for dialysis.

This does not mean that scientists should stop investigating astaxanthin. Further research may reveal useful applications in the future.

But until convincing clinical evidence becomes available, we should not confuse a possibility with a proven treatment.

For me, this is not merely an academic question. It is a personal one.

Living with advanced kidney disease has taught me to appreciate honest medical advice and to be realistic about what science can and cannot promise.

I would rather follow sound medical guidance than spend money on a supplement because an advertisement tells me what I desperately want to hear.

The Problem With Online Supplement Advertising

I am not suggesting that every supplement is worthless or that every company selling one is dishonest.

Some supplements have legitimate uses, and scientific research continues to explore others. But online advertisements sometimes combine genuine scientific terminology with claims that go far beyond the available evidence.

Words such as antioxidant, inflammation, cellular protection, and oxidative stress sound convincing because they describe real scientific concepts.

The problem begins when these concepts are used to imply that one capsule can address several complicated medical conditions at once.

Consider the claims made in the advertisement I saw:

  • Protect kidney cells and support healthy GFR levels.

  • Reduce digestive problems and bloating.

  • Balance hormones and fight fatigue.

  • Improve mental clarity.

  • Make the skin firmer and more youthful.

These are separate health outcomes. Each requires appropriate evidence, and evidence supporting one possible benefit cannot automatically prove the others.

Customer testimonials and impressive star ratings may tell us that buyers are satisfied, but they cannot establish that a supplement improves kidney function.

Similarly, a money-back guarantee may reduce the financial risk of a purchase, but it does not guarantee a medical benefit.

As consumers, we should ask a simple question: Where are the well-designed human clinical trials showing that this particular product produces the advertised results?

If that evidence is missing, caution is justified.

A Personal Word About Stage 4 CKD

At my age, I have learned that protecting my health is not about chasing every new product that promises to make me younger, stronger, or healthier.

It is about making thoughtful decisions with the information available to me.

Because I have Stage 4 CKD, I would not start astaxanthin for kidney protection without first discussing it with my nephrologist or renal pharmacist. A supplement that is tolerated by some healthy adults has not necessarily been adequately studied in people with advanced kidney disease.

I would also want my healthcare professional to review possible interactions with my medications and other supplements.

There is another lesson here: we should never change prescribed treatment or abandon an established medical care plan because a supplement advertisement promises an easier solution.

Scientific progress is real, and I remain hopeful that research will continue to improve the lives of people with kidney disease. But hope should go hand in hand with evidence.

What My Years in Pharmaceutical Science Taught Me

During my professional career, I worked as a chemist and later as a Chemistry Team Leader at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. My work involved evaluating pharmaceutical chemistry and the quality of drug products.

That experience influenced how I look at health claims today.

A substance may have an interesting chemical structure. It may show antioxidant activity in a laboratory. Researchers may even find encouraging results in an early human study.

But before we conclude that it is an effective treatment, we need to ask more questions.

Was the study well designed? Were enough people involved? Was the effect clinically meaningful? Were the results reproduced independently? Were safety and long-term outcomes adequately evaluated?

And, perhaps most importantly, does the evidence actually apply to the people who are being encouraged to buy the product?

These questions are not intended to discourage innovation. They are meant to protect the public and help people make informed decisions.

As someone who spent years working in pharmaceutical science, I believe that scientific honesty is just as important as scientific discovery.

My Conclusion: Let Science, Not Advertising, Guide Us

After reviewing the available evidence, I am not convinced that ClarityMD Astaxanthin can deliver the kidney benefits promised in its advertisement.

Astaxanthin is a genuine compound worthy of scientific investigation. But its antioxidant properties do not prove that a daily 12 mg supplement can improve GFR, stop kidney decline, or prevent dialysis.

For now, I would not buy it for those purposes.

My advice to fellow seniors, people living with chronic illnesses, and anyone searching online for better health is simple: Read beyond the headline. Look beyond the testimonials. Ask for reliable clinical evidence, and consult a qualified healthcare professional before starting a new supplement.

We all want to live longer, healthier, and more comfortable lives. There is nothing wrong with hoping that science will discover new ways to help us.

But we should never allow our hopes to become an invitation for unsupported promises.

At 91 nearing 92, I continue to believe that knowledge, caution, faith, and common sense are valuable companions on the journey of aging.

A final thought: The best health decision is not necessarily the one that promises the most. It is the one supported by the best available evidence.

Disclaimer: This article reflects my personal observations and a review of published scientific information. It is for educational purposes and is not a substitute for individualized medical advice. People with chronic kidney disease should consult their healthcare professionals before taking dietary supplements.

References 

  1. Cochrane Library — Antioxidants for adults with chronic kidney disease. A systematic review of research on antioxidant supplements in CKD, including astaxanthin.

  2. National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health — Using Dietary Supplements Wisely. Guidance on evidence, safety, and interactions.

  3. Brendler and Williamson — Astaxanthin: How much is too much? A safety review. A review of human safety studies and dose considerations.

  4. Donoso and colleagues — Therapeutic uses of natural astaxanthin: An evidence-based review focused on human clinical trials. A review of the human clinical research.

    Finally, My Photo of the Day: 



Tuesday, October 13, 2026

The AI Moment and the Taiwan Question: Why 2027 Matters More Than We Think

The AI Moment and the Taiwan Question: Why 2027 Matters More Than We Think

AI and Geopolitics concept illustration
AI and Geopolitics - The new intersection

The other morning I was reading the Wall Street Journal, like many of you. The headline that caught my eye was about two converging forces: Artificial Intelligence, and the future of Taiwan in 2027. Some commentary calls it the greatest threat to humanity. The phrase is strong, but it made me pause.


As many of you know from my recent post on the Geopolitics of the West Philippine Sea between the US and China, I have long followed the delicate balance in our part of the world. The West Philippine Sea and the Taiwan Strait are not two separate stories. They are two chapters of the same book.


1. What the news actually says about 2027

For several years, Washington talked about the "Davidson Window" - the warning from Admiral Philip Davidson that China would move on Taiwan by 2027. The most recent assessment is different. The US intelligence community has dialed back that view and concluded that Beijing would prefer to take control of Taiwan without resorting to force. The annual threat assessment now states:

"Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification."

In other words, 2027 is not necessarily an invasion date. It is the year Xi Jinping told his military to be ready to be capable of taking Taiwan by 2027 - being capable is not the same as having a plan to do it. That distinction matters for all of us who pray for peace.


Taiwan Strait satellite view
The Taiwan Strait - 180km that shapes world stability

2. Why AI changes the equation


In my post "Are AI Scientists Really Afraid That AI..." I asked whether our fears about AI are well-placed. Today I think the answer is yes, but not for the reasons we see in movies. AI will not necessarily start a war. But AI will make any war far more dangerous, and more likely to be miscalculated:

  • Grey-zone pressure: We already see it in the West Philippine Sea - "grey-zone bullying of the Philippines" as one report described China's tactics. AI-driven drones, sea drones, and autonomous surveillance make that pressure constant, cheap, and harder to attribute.
  • Information war: As I have written before, the greatest legacy we leave is truth. AI can flood our communities in Manila, Taipei, and Walnut Creek with deepfakes that make de-escalation politically impossible.
  • Speed of decision: In a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, AI-assisted command systems compress the time human leaders have to think, to pray, to call each other.

That is why I believe AI plus a Taiwan contingency is a threat to humanity not because invasion is certain in 2027, but because AI makes miscalculation certain if we are not careful.


3. A companion to the West Philippine Sea


My friends often ask: why does the West Philippine Sea matter if you live in California? I tell them, it is the same water. The same international law - UNCLOS - that protects a fisherman from Zambales protects the freedom of navigation that keeps our world economy alive. Taiwan sits at the northern edge of that same sea. A conflict there "would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world", not just because of semiconductors, but because it would break the legal order we have tried to build since World War II - a war I still remember as a boy.

West Philippine Sea map Philippines EEZ
The West Philippine Sea - within the Philippines EEZ

Further reading: West Philippine Sea explainer and my reflection Geopolitics of the West Philippine Sea.


4. What can we do?

I am 91 years old. I have seen wars begin with miscalculation and end with forgiveness. My seven writing legacies have always been about heritage, science, health, faith, technology, community, and travel. This moment touches all seven.

My humble suggestions:

  1. Insist on dialogue, not timelines. Do not fixate on 2027 as destiny.
  2. Support honest journalism and law. The Hague ruling of 2016 on the West Philippine Sea still matters.
  3. Teach our grandchildren how to use AI wisely - as a tool for understanding, not for fear.

As I wrote recently, living alone does not mean being alone. We are all connected by this vast Pacific.

#AI#Taiwan#WestPhilippineSea#Geopolitics#Peace

Thank you MetaAI for this beautiful formatting and images for  this Post. 

Finally, My Photo of Day ( after Trump and Xi Meeting ):

My Quote of the Day: 

 

“If you talk about it, it’s a dream.  If you envision it, it’s possible.  But if you schedule it, it’s real.”

Tony Robbins

 


David At Nearing 92: When Artificial Intelligence Predicts an NFL Game and Gets It Wrong!

David At Nearing 92: When Artificial Intelligence Predicts an NFL Game and Gets It Wrong!

My Monday Night Football Prediction: Rams vs. Bills

One of the things I enjoy about my life at The Heritage Downtown (THD), my active senior living community in Walnut Creek, California, is that I still have plenty of opportunities to learn, observe, and share my thoughts with my worldwide blog readers.

Recently, I began a new experiment with ChatGPT, my AI companion. Since I enjoy watching American professional football, I decided to ask ChatGPT to predict the winners of the NFL's Monday Night Football games.

I thought this would be an interesting way to test how good artificial intelligence is at predicting the outcome of a sporting event. After all, AI can analyze statistics, team records, player performances, injuries, and other information that might influence the outcome of a game.

But can it predict what will actually happen on the football field?

Our latest contest was the October 12 Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills. Before the game, I asked ChatGPT to predict the winner.

Its choice was the Rams. Unfortunately for ChatGPT, the Bills had a different plan!

A Game That Kept Everyone Guessing

The game turned out to be an exciting contest that went down to the wire. The two teams traded the lead eight times, and the fourth quarter alone produced 35 combined points. Neither team was willing to surrender.

The Rams had quarterback Matthew Stafford, who completed 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards and three touchdowns. His favorite target, Puka Nacua, caught 17 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown.

On the other side was Buffalo's quarterback Josh Allen, whose ability to pass the ball and run with it made him a constant threat.

For readers who are more familiar with soccer, imagine a match in which both teams keep scoring, the lead repeatedly changes hands, and neither side can establish control. The difference is that American football scores touchdowns worth six points, followed by opportunities to earn extra points, as well as field goals worth three points.

When regulation time ended with the score tied, the game went into overtime. In the NFL, overtime is an additional period used to determine the winner when a regular-season game is tied after four quarters.

The decisive moment came when Buffalo moved into field-goal range. Kicker Tyler Bass then connected on a 45-yard field goal, giving the Bills a thrilling 37–34 victory.

My predicted winner, the Rams, lost. The Bills went home with the victory, and ChatGPT had another prediction to explain!

Why Is Predicting Football So Difficult for AI?

I have a scientific background. I earned my Ph.D. in Pharmaceutical Chemistry at the University of Illinois and spent many years working in the pharmaceutical industry and at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

My professional experience taught me to respect data, evidence, and careful analysis. But I also learned that scientific knowledge does not eliminate uncertainty.

Football illustrates this principle beautifully.

A team may have better statistics, a talented quarterback, and a favorable matchup. Yet one interception, one missed kick, one defensive mistake, or one extraordinary play can change everything.

AI can analyze available information and estimate which team has the better chance of winning. However, it cannot know in advance exactly how the players will perform on a particular evening.

There is an important difference between making an informed prediction and knowing the future.

ChatGPT and My Continuing NFL Experiment

I have teased ChatGPT before about its disappointing record in our Monday Night Football predictions. After this latest result, I have another reason to challenge my AI companion to improve.

But I do not consider this experiment a failure. It gives me an opportunity to learn more about artificial intelligence while enjoying one of America's most popular sports.

I also think my readers outside the United States may find this interesting. Many people around the world follow soccer, where a single goal can determine the result. American football has a different scoring system, frequent changes in possession, and special teams that can decide a game with one kick.

Both sports, however, share an essential quality: the outcome is not settled until the contest is over.

As I approach my 92nd birthday, I remain curious about the world around me. I enjoy testing new technologies, questioning their limitations, and sharing what I learn with my readers.

And I intend to keep asking ChatGPT for its NFL predictions. Perhaps it will improve its record. Perhaps it will disappoint me again.

Either way, I will be watching!

My lesson from this game is simple: Even the most sophisticated artificial intelligence can make mistakes. The important thing is not to pretend that the mistakes never happened, but to acknowledge them, learn from them, and keep an open mind.

After all, if ChatGPT could predict every football game correctly, it would not be making predictions. It would be telling us the future!

Until my next NFL prediction, may we all remain curious, humble, and willing to learn.

David At Nearing 92, The Heritage Downtown, Walnut Creek, California

AI OVERVIEW
Artificial intelligence models are increasingly used to forecast sports outcomes, but they frequently get it wrong due to inherent athletic randomness, sudden injuries, and the limitations of purely statistical modeling. While advanced algorithms can process thousands of data points, real-world football games often turn on unquantifiable human factors like a single referee call, a sudden shift in weather, or an unpredictable turnover.
Why AI Models Stumble in the NFL
Predictive AI relies heavily on historical data, regression models, and simulated match-ups. However, football introduces a high degree of variance that algorithms cannot fully anticipate:
  • The "Variance" Factor: Even if an AI model assigns a 75% confidence pick to a team, that team is statistically designed to lose 25% of the time. When that 25% scenario happens, it looks like an AI failure, but it is actually normal mathematical variance.
  • Market Discrepancies vs. Real Life: AI models frequently clash with human betting markets. For instance, in Week 3 of the 2026 season, six predictive AI models heavily favored Denver at 62% over the Los Angeles Rams, defying a market that favored the Rams. While Denver ultimately won 30-26, other heavy algorithmic leans—like projecting the New Orleans Saints to easily dismantle the Las Vegas Raiders—fell entirely flat when the Raiders pulled off an upset. 
  • Massive Season-Long Misses: Over a full season, AI inaccuracies compound. A notable example occurred when Google's Gemini AI predicted the 2025 NFL season standings. The chatbot accurately predicted the exact record for only 4 of 32 NFL teams. Its biggest blunder was projecting the Seattle Seahawks to win just 7 games and finish last; instead, the Seahawks went 14-4 and won the Super Bowl.
Ultimately, AI platforms excel at finding long-term statistical edges rather than guaranteeing short-term weekly wins. For fans and bettors, these "wrong" predictions serve as a constant reminder that sports will always belong to human unpredictable execution rather than computer code
Finally, My Photo of the Day

I have a Calamansi tree in my Patio now still flowering, and with young and mature fruits


 
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