The AI Moment and the Taiwan Question: Why 2027 Matters More Than We Think
The other morning I was reading the Wall Street Journal, like many of you. The headline that caught my eye was about two converging forces: Artificial Intelligence, and the future of Taiwan in 2027. Some commentary calls it the greatest threat to humanity. The phrase is strong, but it made me pause.
As many of you know from my recent post on the Geopolitics of the West Philippine Sea between the US and China, I have long followed the delicate balance in our part of the world. The West Philippine Sea and the Taiwan Strait are not two separate stories. They are two chapters of the same book.
1. What the news actually says about 2027
For several years, Washington talked about the "Davidson Window" - the warning from Admiral Philip Davidson that China would move on Taiwan by 2027. The most recent assessment is different. The US intelligence community has dialed back that view and concluded that Beijing would prefer to take control of Taiwan without resorting to force. The annual threat assessment now states:
"Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification."
In other words, 2027 is not necessarily an invasion date. It is the year Xi Jinping told his military to be ready to be capable of taking Taiwan by 2027 - being capable is not the same as having a plan to do it. That distinction matters for all of us who pray for peace.
2. Why AI changes the equation
In my post "Are AI Scientists Really Afraid That AI..." I asked whether our fears about AI are well-placed. Today I think the answer is yes, but not for the reasons we see in movies. AI will not necessarily start a war. But AI will make any war far more dangerous, and more likely to be miscalculated:
- Grey-zone pressure: We already see it in the West Philippine Sea - "grey-zone bullying of the Philippines" as one report described China's tactics. AI-driven drones, sea drones, and autonomous surveillance make that pressure constant, cheap, and harder to attribute.
- Information war: As I have written before, the greatest legacy we leave is truth. AI can flood our communities in Manila, Taipei, and Walnut Creek with deepfakes that make de-escalation politically impossible.
- Speed of decision: In a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, AI-assisted command systems compress the time human leaders have to think, to pray, to call each other.
That is why I believe AI plus a Taiwan contingency is a threat to humanity not because invasion is certain in 2027, but because AI makes miscalculation certain if we are not careful.
3. A companion to the West Philippine Sea
My friends often ask: why does the West Philippine Sea matter if you live in California? I tell them, it is the same water. The same international law - UNCLOS - that protects a fisherman from Zambales protects the freedom of navigation that keeps our world economy alive. Taiwan sits at the northern edge of that same sea. A conflict there "would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world", not just because of semiconductors, but because it would break the legal order we have tried to build since World War II - a war I still remember as a boy.
Further reading: West Philippine Sea explainer and my reflection Geopolitics of the West Philippine Sea.
4. What can we do?
I am 91 years old. I have seen wars begin with miscalculation and end with forgiveness. My seven writing legacies have always been about heritage, science, health, faith, technology, community, and travel. This moment touches all seven.
My humble suggestions:
- Insist on dialogue, not timelines. Do not fixate on 2027 as destiny.
- Support honest journalism and law. The Hague ruling of 2016 on the West Philippine Sea still matters.
- Teach our grandchildren how to use AI wisely - as a tool for understanding, not for fear.
As I wrote recently, living alone does not mean being alone. We are all connected by this vast Pacific.
Thank you MetaAI for this beautiful formatting and images for this Post.
Finally, My Photo of Day ( after Trump and Xi Meeting ):
“If you talk about it, it’s a dream. If you envision it, it’s possible. But if you schedule it, it’s real.”
Tony Robbins
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